Macquarie: U.S. to Drive Only 5% of World Cup Betting

Macquarie estimates the United States will account for roughly 5% of global betting volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup and has kept its global per-match wagering forecast at about $500 million. The bank projects total global betting volume for the tournament at roughly $50 billion.

The U.S. share is small enough that large domestic growth would not materially change the global per-match figure. Chad Beynon, Macquarie’s senior gaming, lodging and theatres analyst, told analysts the $500 million is a global forecast and that a 40% increase in U.S. betting would be insignificant given the country’s roughly 5% share.

Macquarie cited several factors that influence its forecast. Wider legal sports betting access in the U.S., North American hosting and growth in products such as same-game parlays, live betting and player props should lift activity. At the same time, an expanded tournament schedule with more matches spread over a longer period could spread wagering and reduce volume on a per-match basis.

The bank’s forecasts cover legal sports betting activity only and exclude offshore wagering and prediction markets. Macquarie confirmed it has not prepared a separate forecast for trading volumes on prediction-market platforms. The firm noted prediction markets could attract users in states without legal online sportsbooks. About 40% of the U.S. population does not have access to legal sports betting apps, and users already accustomed to online sportsbook apps are expected to continue using them, Beynon noted.

Macquarie provided detail on its 2022 methodology. The firm’s $35 billion estimate for the 2022 World Cup covered legal betting channels only. The bank estimated total legal sports betting wagers across all sports in 2022 at about $600 billion to $700 billion and assumed roughly half of wagers placed during the World Cup period, about five weeks, would be on World Cup matches.

On industry earnings, Macquarie projects the World Cup could lift operator EBITDA by about 2% to 5% in 2027. The bank identified Flutter Entertainment, Super Group and Rush Street Interactive as operators well positioned to benefit from tournament betting activity.

Macquarie’s figures therefore reflect activity routed through licensed operators and official reporting channels rather than the full global scale of all wagering.