Kalshi May 11 Deadline, Minnesota Bans, Sweeps Bills, UFC Odds

Kalshi must file a motion for a preliminary injunction in its Iowa lawsuit by May 11. Iowa’s response is due July 10 and Kalshi’s reply is due July 31. The case is part of a broader legal dispute over whether states can limit or ban prediction markets. A consolidated appeal before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit includes challenges by Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com to Nevada law.

CFTC Chair Mike Selig is monitoring state legislation that would restrict prediction trading, including measures advancing in Minnesota.

In Minnesota two separate legislative tracks are moving. A conference committee approved language that would prohibit certain prediction‑market contracts and folded that language into an omnibus public safety bill now returned to both chambers. The state Senate has passed a separate bill that would ban prediction contracts tied to real‑world events such as sports, politics and death; that bill awaits action in the House.

Tennessee’s SB 1992, which creates a new offense targeting manipulation connected to prediction markets, has cleared both legislative chambers and was signed by legislative leaders; it is awaiting final procedural steps before possible transmission to the governor. Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced HB 2497 to establish a framework for “event outcome prediction wagering” and to assign duties to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and the Department of Revenue.

Four state legislatures last week sent sweepstakes‑related bills to governors’ desks. Tennessee SB 2136 and Oklahoma SB 1589 target the dual‑currency payment systems used by many sweepstakes platforms. Iowa SF 2289 and Louisiana HB 53 would expand state regulators’ enforcement authority over unregulated gaming operations. Separately, Louisiana HB 883, a narrowly focused bill aimed at dual‑currency sweepstakes platforms, passed the state House unanimously and now awaits a final vote in the Senate.

The Colorado Legislature passed two sports‑betting bills that now await formal enrollment and the governor’s action. SB 163 would restructure parts of the state’s gambling regulatory framework. SB 131 would limit push notifications, restrict promotional language in advertising, and cap deposit options for bettors.

Aristocrat Leisure is scheduled to report half‑year 2026 results on May 13. Market watchers are expected to review revenue trends, commentary on interactive gaming growth and any references to ongoing litigation in the supplier sector.

Betting integrity concerns arose at UFC 328 after a large odds shift on the Sean Brady–Joaquin Buckley fight. At some sportsbooks Buckley moved from about a +250 underdog to as much as a −220 favorite in the hours before the bout, and certain proposition markets were temporarily closed. Regulators, integrity monitors and the promotion have not released a detailed account of those shifts. Earlier betting irregularities were cited by the promotion when a bout was canceled at UFC 324. The PGA Tour’s Truist Championship this week offers another major market to monitor for trading volume and betting patterns.

The current activity follows a history of federal challenges to state attempts to regulate prediction markets: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously filed lawsuits against states that enacted prohibitions or regulatory frameworks. Platforms that offer predictive trading and companies that run sweepstakes platforms maintain that their models differ from traditional gambling, while state lawmakers and regulators have cited consumer protection and integrity concerns when pursuing bans and tighter rules.