Kalshi-backed HIP-4 may pull high-volume traders from Polymarket

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 is a public test proposal to add on-chain prediction markets to its exchange. The design would allow binary wagers on elections, macro events and crypto prices directly within the same perpetual futures margin account traders already use.

John Wang, head of crypto at Kalshi, co-authored HIP-4. Hyperliquid and Kalshi formalized a partnership in March to build on-chain prediction markets together. The integration would let traders hold one margin account for both perpetual futures and binary bets without moving funds between platforms.

On April 21, Kalshi and Polymarket each announced plans to launch crypto perpetual futures within hours of one another. Those announcements reflected overlapping product strategies among trading venues.

Financial moves in the sector include Kalshi’s March fundraising of about $1 billion at an approximate $22 billion valuation and reports that Polymarket is raising about $400 million at an approximate $15 billion valuation. Hyperliquid Strategies Inc., the Nasdaq-listed vehicle chaired by former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond and trading as PURR, filed an S-1 that could raise up to $1 billion.

On-chain researcher Fleck identified user overlap between Polymarket and Hyperliquid. Fleck reported that 3.3% of Polymarket users are active on Hyperliquid and that cohort accounts for roughly 12% of Polymarket’s trading volume. Because HIP-4 would allow both product types inside a single account, those users would be able to place binary bets and perpetual trades without moving funds.

Hyperliquid recorded more than $1 billion in single-day volume on oil-linked contracts during the Iran war earlier this year when some traditional commodity venues were closed. Hyperliquid restricts U.S. user access and operates with a small team. Polymarket employs staff to curate markets, manage disputes and route resolutions through UMA’s optimistic oracle.

HIP-4 remains in public testing. The proposal has not set a mainnet launch date and has not finalized its oracle infrastructure. The timing and scope of any live launch depend on technical, compliance and user access decisions.