Ireland and India Probe Prediction-Market Integrity Risks

Irish authorities have opened an investigation into suspicious wagers on Polymarket tied to the Dublin Central by-election. Finance Minister Simon Harris ordered a review and asked the Department of Justice, An Garda Síochána, the Gambling Regulator and the Central Bank of Ireland to coordinate the inquiry. Harris described the activity as “suspicious betting activity” and called cryptocurrency-linked prediction wagering a “wild, wild west,” urging officials to examine both gambling oversight and possible money-laundering risks.

Officials reviewing the Dublin Central wagers identified patterns authorities associate with illicit activity: coordinated long-shot bets, newly created accounts and unusually consistent profits. Authorities say there is no indication that candidates, including Gerry Hutch, known as ‘The Monk,’ were involved in the betting.

In India, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology warned that users continue to access Polymarket and Kalshi despite restrictions that took effect under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules (PROGA) on May 1. The ministry said virtual private networks and other tools can bypass domestic blocks and that providers and users who do so could face legal exposure.

An Indian gaming lawyer, Jay Sayta, said prediction markets fall under PROGA’s definition of online money games and are subject to a blanket ban. Indian authorities also flagged stablecoin payments and other blockchain-based payment rails as ways funds can move across borders, posing potential financial risks and risks to public order and economic integrity.

Trading records illustrate the size of these markets. On May 7, contracts tied to an Indian Premier League cricket match recorded about $27.7 million in combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. Available data do not identify what share of that volume originated in India.

Other countries have opened probes or taken action. Israeli authorities charged an Air Force officer with allegedly using classified information to place profitable bets on a prediction platform. French investigators examined unusual wagers linked to temperature contracts after a complaint from the national meteorological agency; one set of bets produced roughly $35,000 in profit. Brazil has blocked access to some platforms, and regulators in Portugal, Hungary and New Zealand have taken enforcement steps. An Argentine judge issued a nationwide injunction against one operator.

In the United States, Kalshi and Polymarket operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight for certain contracts, but the sector faces legal challenges at the state level and remains largely unregulated in many other jurisdictions. Governments outside the U.S. generally apply existing gambling or financial rules to prediction markets and are assessing how to address cross-border, crypto-enabled activity that can continue after domestic restrictions.

Regulators and law enforcement in multiple jurisdictions are reviewing trading records, account histories and payment flows to determine whether activity amounts to money laundering, market manipulation or insider trading.