Hormuz Crisis Puts 13m bpd at Sea; India, China Turn to Russia

About 13 million barrels per day of oil are effectively trapped by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, driving India and China to increase purchases of Russian crude as shipments from the Gulf decline.

Kpler tracking shows China’s crude flows through the Hormuz route fell to about 222,000 barrels per day in April from roughly 4.45 million bpd before the Iran war. India’s flows via the same corridor dropped to about 247,000 bpd so far this month from 2.8 million bpd in February.

Washington renewed a waiver on April 18 that allows some countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for roughly a month. U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude remain in place. Nearly 98% of Iran’s exports go to China, with only small volumes reaching India.

Buyers in New Delhi and Beijing have been seeking more Russian cargoes after Iranian attacks disrupted Gulf supply routes and raised doubts about reliability. Benjamin Tang, director and head of liquid bulk research at S&P Global Commodities at Sea, reported that India imported 4.57 million bpd of crude in March, with 2.14 million bpd coming from Russia, a 47% share that month. Kpler data showed Russia’s share near 20% in February.

Despite the shift toward Russia, India’s total oil imports remain more than 14% below prewar levels. Kpler data show India’s Russian crude imports fell to about 1.04 million bpd in February from 1.84 million bpd in November. In February, New Delhi’s imports from Saudi Arabia rose to about 1.03 million bpd from a 2025 average near 638,000 bpd. Saudi shipments to India stood near 684,190 bpd in April.

Some Saudi supply is being directed to China through the Red Sea, where Saudi companies hold major refinery stakes. Kpler recorded Saudi shipments to China at about 1.35 million bpd in April, up from 1.04 million bpd in March but below February’s 1.67 million bpd.

Multiple industry sources and calculations indicate Russian crude output fell in April after Ukrainian drone strikes hit ports and refineries and after flows through the only remaining pipeline to Europe stopped. One set of estimates put the decline at roughly 300,000 to 400,000 bpd from earlier months; other estimates put April output down 500,000 to 600,000 bpd from late-2025 levels. An industry source warned, “Against the backdrop of ongoing attacks on Russia’s ports and refineries, it will be difficult to place oil without cutting output, especially with upcoming spring maintenance shutdowns.”

Russia has kept official production data secret since 2022; the energy ministry declined to comment on recent estimates. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said higher oil prices would help reduce the budget deficit.

Market conditions reflect blocked Hormuz flows, attacks that have disrupted Gulf output, uneven application of U.S. sanctions, and security-related hits to Russian logistics. Those factors have narrowed available cargoes and shifted some Asian buying toward Russia while parts of Saudi supply are rerouted to Chinese refineries.