Hashdex: Markets underprice CLARITY Act’s impact

Hashdex said crypto markets are underpricing the CLARITY Act as the Senate Banking Committee meets in executive session May 14 to consider the bill. The measure cleared the House 294-134 in July 2025 and now requires at least seven Democratic votes to advance in the Senate.

Samir Kerbage, Hashdex’s chief investment officer, told reporters that current price action is reflecting the odds of a committee vote rather than the larger capital flows a signed law could produce. He argued a law would trigger institutional inflows, new product development and broader acceptance by investment committees.

The CLARITY Act would set rules for stablecoin rewards, tighten anti-money-laundering obligations for digital-asset firms, clarify when tokens fall under securities or commodities law, and create exemptions and disclosure standards for crypto fundraising. The bill would also bring digital-asset exchanges, brokers and dealers under the Bank Secrecy Act and add customer identification and due-diligence duties.

One contested provision bans rewards on idle stablecoin balances that resemble bank deposits while allowing transaction-based incentives, and it requires joint implementing rules from the SEC, CFTC and Treasury. Banks have warned that provision could prompt deposit flight, and crypto firms have argued limits on third-party rewards are anti-competitive.

Hashdex emphasized institutional involvement. Kerbage noted that fiduciary responsibilities, investment policies and compliance teams need a clear regulatory framework before committing capital at scale. He expects most initial flows to be channeled through ETFs and index-based products that provide familiar reporting and custody structures for investment committees.

Kerbage pointed to the January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a precedent, saying regulatory approval converted latent demand into packaged inflows. He cited about $70 billion in cumulative flows into Bitcoin ETFs, roughly $12 billion into U.S.-traded Ethereum ETFs and more than $1 billion into Solana ETFs since their launches.

Hashdex outlined scenarios for market reaction. In a base case, the bill advances through committee but stalls before signing, leaving Bitcoin in a $74,000–$85,000 trading range. In a bull case, bipartisan momentum and a summer enactment would push Bitcoin toward recent highs and lift non-Bitcoin assets more sharply. A drawn-out markup fight or substantive amendments on stablecoins, AML or banking-law language could delay or dilute the bill and keep institutional allocations on hold.

Kerbage warned the legislative path faces friction from banking-sector opposition, ethics and implementation concerns, and the requirement of at least seven Democratic votes in the Senate. He expressed optimism that the bill could reach the president’s desk by summer and called CLARITY “the most significant piece of legislation in this industry’s history.”

The committee session on May 14 is an early test of whether bipartisan momentum can be sustained through the Senate, where the bill faces several procedural and substantive hurdles before it could become law.