Global bond yields surge; Bitcoin slips below $80,000

On May 13, global government bond yields rose to levels not seen in years. U.S. Treasurys traded around 3.99% for two years, 4.46% for 10 years and 5.03% for 30 years. U.K. 10-year gilts were near 5.10% and some German 10-year Bund yields approached levels last seen during the eurozone debt crisis. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to highs not seen since the late 1990s, while China’s 10-year government bond yield remained near 1.74%.

Markets moved amid reports of tighter borrowing costs, disruptions to energy supply and higher inflation readings. The U.S. producer-price and consumer-price data showed rising energy costs: April consumer prices increased 0.6% month over month and 3.8% year over year, with energy accounting for more than 40% of the monthly rise.

An interruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz added pressure on energy markets. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated about 20 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2024, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. In its May outlook the agency described Hormuz as effectively closed to shipping, reported Brent near $117 per barrel in April and estimated Middle East production shut-ins around 10.5 million barrels per day that month.

The World Bank’s commodity outlook projected energy prices to rise about 24% this year, with a baseline Brent forecast of $86 per barrel and a severe-disruption scenario near $115. The same report projected fertilizer prices to increase about 31%, driven by a large rise in urea prices.

Rising long-term yields change the cost of refinancing government debt. Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and the International Monetary Fund projected it could reach 100% by 2029. The OECD’s debt analysis highlighted large sovereign borrowing and upcoming refinancing needs across member countries. The Financial Stability Board flagged sovereign bond markets, asset valuations and private credit as areas requiring close monitoring.

Regulatory reports showed mixed signals on financial resilience. The Federal Reserve’s financial-stability review noted strength in household and bank balance sheets while pointing to elevated equity valuations, thin corporate bond spreads and high leverage among large hedge funds. The Financial Stability Board listed geopolitical risks, an oil shock, private credit growth and persistent inflation as key threats to financial stability.

Cryptocurrencies tracked broader market stress on May 13. Bitcoin traded near $80,500 earlier in the day and slipped below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected producer-price data, with the broader crypto market capitalization near $2.7 trillion and Bitcoin dominance about 60%. Analysts laid out alternative scenarios for Bitcoin’s behavior depending on policy and liquidity conditions.

Market participants said they will watch scheduled sovereign auctions, refinancing calendars, credit spreads, liquidity measures, equity valuations and cryptocurrency prices for signs of further strain.