Gibraltar sets 2026 rules for prediction markets

Gibraltar published the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 on July 13. The rules create a legal category that treats prediction market activity as distinct from betting, gaming and lotteries, permit the use of stablecoins for account funding and settlements, and ban self-certification of markets.

The regulations state that ‘prediction market activity carried on in accordance with these Regulations is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery for the purposes of the Act solely by reason of its characteristics as prediction market activity.’ They establish a separate authorisation pathway for prediction market operators and require any firm holding a Gibraltar gambling licence to obtain a distinct approval to run prediction markets.

Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham described the framework as ‘future-focused’, adding that it supports innovation while providing a clear and robust regime for authorisation, supervision, market integrity, participant protection, financial crime controls and the protection of Gibraltar’s reputation. Published guidance emphasizes market integrity, consumer protection and safeguards against financial crime.

The regulations prohibit self-certification of markets. Regulators will have the power to suspend any market and to ban markets that involve criminal conduct, deaths, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict, or those deemed likely to encourage manipulation or consumer harm or to pose a reputational risk to Gibraltar. Markets must be resistant to manipulation and must be clearly defined for settlement.

Stablecoins pegged to assets such as gold or the British pound may be used for deposits, collateral, settlements and withdrawals. Operators are required to apply customer protection and anti-money laundering controls that align with the regulations’ financial crime objectives. Another requirement is that operators maintain a physical presence in Gibraltar.

ADI PredictStreet received the first Gibraltar prediction market licence in April and later became the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup. US-based WagerWire has been granted a licence in principle and is preparing to launch Wire Markets; the company intends to use Gibraltar’s authorisation to support international expansion. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger described Gibraltar’s framework as providing the regulatory certainty the industry has sought and said the firm is preparing to operate under the new rules.

A briefing note accompanying the regulations notes there is no settled international consensus on how to classify prediction markets and that different jurisdictions may treat them differently. The note states a Gibraltar licence will not automatically confer the right to operate in other countries.

The regulations set detailed prohibitions, grant broad supervisory powers and require local accountability through a physical presence. Operators will now proceed through Gibraltar’s authorisation process to determine whether the territory’s regulatory model suits their plans.