Genius Sports Raises 2026 Outlook After Legend Deal

Genius Sports raised its full-year 2026 targets after completing the Legend acquisition on May 1 and reporting first-quarter results. The company posted Q1 revenue of $188 million, up 31% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $24 million, a 21% increase.

Betting Technology, Content & Services revenue was $146.2 million, a 33% rise from the prior year. Media Technology revenue reached $41.7 million, up 22%. Management raised its 2026 guidance to revenue between $990 million and $1.01 billion, compared with prior guidance of $810 million to $820 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to $270 million to $280 million from $180 million to $190 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin target near 28%, up from about 23%.

CEO Mark Locke described the company’s direction as moving beyond raw data toward a broader commercial platform, commenting, “We are moving from a data provider to the operating system and monetization layer of global sport.” Company executives said Legend adds an “intent layer” that supports audience ownership, advertising and fan engagement, and that the deal expands cross-selling between Genius’s sportsbook infrastructure and Legend’s audience network.

Prediction markets were a focal point of the earnings call. Management characterized the sector as a “meaningful new ecosystem” and reported onboarding several high-profile market makers that use Genius’s official low-latency data feeds. Company executives outlined commercial pathways tied to prediction markets that include official sports data, market-making infrastructure, advertising demand and customer acquisition spending.

Locke compared the opportunity to the early growth of U.S. online sportsbooks and said Genius plans to apply a similar operational model to prediction markets. Internally, the company models operators such as Kalshi, Robinhood and Polymarket as revenue comparables to large sportsbook companies when sizing the market opportunity.

Executives also signaled expectations that prediction markets will move closer to existing sports-betting structures over time, highlighting the role of leagues and regulators. Locke noted that prediction markets will need to work with leagues and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and added, “You’re only going to get the official result from the official holder of data.” Management emphasized the importance of official league feeds as the sector matures.

Analysts asked about integration and commercialization of Legend and whether anticipated synergies are reflected in the upgraded guidance. Locke pointed to early integration progress and rising customer demand. CFO Brian Hess said the combined offering “is going down very well” and stressed that additional upside from the Legend integration has not yet been included in the company’s financial outlook.

Genius described its Moment Engine product as a tool that identifies high-engagement sports moments and matches them with targeted ads in real time. Management said Moment Engine is integrated with platforms that represent roughly 90% of the programmatic advertising ecosystem and has been used during events including the Super Bowl and March Madness. On artificial intelligence, Locke stated, “AI doesn’t threaten our core, it compounds it,” and argued that owned data and audience destinations gain value as AI use expands.

Genius cited the Q1 financial results and the closing of the Legend acquisition as the immediate basis for its revised 2026 targets and its focus on prediction markets as a growth area.