Gas prices will decide Bitcoin’s bid for $70K

Bitcoin cleared $60,000 and is pressing toward $70,000. The cryptocurrency’s next advance depends on whether gasoline prices cool after an Iran-driven oil shock eased, and on the July consumer-price report.

June payrolls rose by 57,000, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% and labor-force participation slipped to 61.5% in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Traders trimmed the odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 54% from roughly 67%, and the dollar index fell 0.56% to 100.83.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced assets cheaper for holders of other currencies, supporting gold and Bitcoin during the session after the jobs data.

Gasoline prices are central to inflation readings. RBOB gasoline futures remain well above WTI crude on a normalized basis, and pump prices are roughly 40% higher than before the conflict. The Labor Department’s May consumer price data showed gasoline rose 7% in the month and 40.5% year over year.

The Energy Information Administration reported refineries operating at 96.6% of capacity and producing about 10 million barrels of gasoline per day. Total gasoline stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels and were about 7% below the five-year seasonal average.

Brent and WTI crude have moved close to levels seen before the conflict, trading near $72 and $69 a barrel respectively as exports through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, Saudi Arabia adjusted pricing and OPEC+ raised output targets. Policymakers have begun to treat the Iran-driven spike as easing, though officials say energy effects have not fully worked through the economy.

Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, noted that precious metals, the dollar and Bitcoin reversed in a single session after the jobs data. He added that the rally will become durable only if central bankers conclude policy is restrictive enough without another hike, a judgment markets expect to wait for the July 14 consumer-price report.

Market scenarios for July 14 range from a bullish outcome, in which gasoline cools, CPI softens and Bitcoin retests $70,000, to a bearish outcome, in which pump prices keep CPI elevated, hike odds rise and Bitcoin falls below current levels. A mixed reading would likely leave Bitcoin above $60,000 without a confirmed new trend.

Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 and reduced expected net ETF inflows to zero from $10 billion after $3.3 billion of inflows so far this year. The bank’s downside scenario places Bitcoin near $53,000 if the economy cools and outflows continue.

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh told reporters that rates were at 3.50%-3.75% and that inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% goal. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described policy as slightly restrictive and said the next move is not decided.

The June consumer-price index is scheduled for release on July 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. That reading will provide fresh data on whether gasoline pressures eased in June and how much weight policymakers assign to recent energy-price moves.