Futures-heavy rally leaves Bitcoin under $80,000

Bitcoin traded near $79,000 after a rally led mainly by futures and options left spot buying thin. Across the six premium exchanges tracked, derivatives accounted for 87.77% of trading activity, with total notional volume near $9.73 billion.

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, cautioned on April 30 that the advance to near $79,000 was powered by derivatives while spot demand declined. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score fell from 50 to 40, moving below neutral.

Binance accounted for about 87.22% of reported liquidity among the tracked venues. Deribit did not record strong hedging flows that would point to large institutional positioning. The concentration of derivatives activity raised measures of market leverage.

On daily charts, Bitcoin broke above a bullish channel then formed a Shooting Star candle, a candlestick pattern that appears when prices rise during a session but close lower. Real trading volume for the session was 15,780 BTC, above the 20-day average of 13,870 BTC, and selling pressure dominated.

Short-term momentum indicators showed reduced engagement: price momentum fell 3.5%, net buying pressure declined 28.6%, and overall trading activity dropped 13.3%. Options metrics showed a rise in downside concern, with the 25-delta skew up 6.75%, options open interest down 9.98%, and the volatility spread rising 173.4%.

Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs weakened in recent sessions. ETF products recorded $783.4 million in net outflows while trading volume across those products declined 13.45%.

On-chain data were mixed. Daily active addresses rose 6.4% while entity-adjusted transfer volume fell 7.4%. The long-term holder/short-term holder SOPR ratio bottomed near 0.99 on April 24–25 and later climbed to about 1.097.

Exchange inflow data indicated most selling came from recent buyers. Short-term holder addresses accounted for 97.2% of coins sent to exchanges. Mid-sized holders, defined as addresses holding 1 to 1,000 BTC, were responsible for roughly 58% of inflows and smaller holders about 18.5%. A peak inflow of 35,649 BTC occurred on April 24; by May 3 daily inflows had declined to 3,895 BTC. Short-term holders were down about 2.17% on average, while long-term holders remained up roughly 27%.

The market showed increased derivatives activity alongside softer institutional spot demand and mixed on-chain signals. Observers noted the concentration of futures and options volume compared with cash-market buying during the recent price move.