DraftKings’ Railbird/DKeX plan could add $1B by 2030

Citizens analysts Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin project that DraftKings could reach roughly $1 billion in annual revenue by 2030 if it routes more trades through its Railbird exchange and expands market-making operations. Citizens values the business at about $10 billion at a 20% market share and $14 billion at a 30% share.

DraftKings bought the CFTC-regulated exchange operator Railbird in 2025 and has named its in-house platform DKeX. The company has self-certified a series of sports-event contracts on DKeX. Citizens notes that routing trades through DKeX would let DraftKings capture exchange fees in addition to consumer-facing platform fees, while giving the company control over market creation, liquidity incentives and product rollout.

Current consumer trading activity remains small compared with Citizens’ projections. DraftKings reported about $108 million in consumer trading volume in May, which Citizens estimates translates to roughly $2 million in gross revenue at an approximate 2% take rate. The analysts say much of that revenue was likely offset by promotional spending during the period.

DraftKings has guided for $200 million to $300 million in Predictions-related customer acquisition spending in 2026. Based on current acquisition costs and marketing plans, Citizens estimates that could add two million to three million customers this year.

The Predictions product has expanded since its December launch. DraftKings moved beyond an initial slate of CME Group contracts to introduce “Combos,” a parlay-style offering built on Crypto.com’s event-contract infrastructure, integrated Predictions into its multi-vertical app alongside sportsbook, casino and fantasy products, and adjusted fee structures. Executives have indicated more sports-style contracts, including microbetting, may follow.

Citizens highlights market making as the most promising revenue layer. Market makers provide liquidity by continuously quoting bid and ask prices and taking the opposite side of trades, generating revenue from spreads and trading volumes. DraftKings already employs traders and risk-management teams with experience pricing sporting events and managing sportsbook exposure, capabilities the analysts say could be applied to market-making on DKeX and on third-party venues. Under Citizens’ scenario, third-party market-making activity could generate about $184 million in EBITDA by 2030.

Most current DraftKings prediction-market activity is routed through other venues rather than Railbird. Citizens expects that to change around major calendar moments, such as the NFL season, when DraftKings may shift a larger share of trades onto DKeX and scale market-making efforts. The NFL season could provide an early test of whether DraftKings can operate as a retail platform, broker, exchange operator and market maker simultaneously.

DraftKings management has described prediction markets as a strategic priority and a customer-acquisition tool for states where traditional sports betting is restricted. Citizens’ forecasts are contingent on DraftKings capturing exchange economics and successfully expanding market-making operations while growing customer activity.