Crypto Traders Value SpaceX Above $2T on SPCX Perp

Trade.xyz launched a Hyperliquid-powered SPCX‑USDC pre-IPO perpetual for SpaceX on May 17, creating a cash-settled, on-chain market that ties contract price to an implied market capitalization using an 11.87 billion fully diluted share count.

The contract opened with a $150 reference price, which implied about $1.78 trillion. Early trading pushed the contract to a high of $216, implying an above-$2.5 trillion valuation, before it settled near $203 on the quoted basis. Trading volume exceeded $40 million in the first 12 hours.

SPCX is quoted in USDC and permits long and short positions. It is cash-settled and does not convey ownership, shareholder rights or any claim on underlying SpaceX shares. The reference share count is used to convert the contract price into an implied market capitalization.

The SPCX listing follows Trade.xyz’s May 1 launch of a Cerebras Systems pre-IPO perpetual under the CBRS ticker. That earlier contract served as a smaller test of whether synthetic, on-chain markets can track eventual listing prices for private companies.

SpaceX has not filed an S-1 registration. Reported private-market discussions have placed a potential IPO range near $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Public information on Starlink revenues and broader company finances is limited. Blockchain data shows SpaceX holds about 8,285 bitcoin in Coinbase Prime custody, a position valued at roughly $637 million.

Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet, warned that while crypto infrastructure can expand access and price discovery around private-market demand, pricing these contracts is difficult without a continuous public-market benchmark and early liquidity can be driven by short-term speculation. He emphasized the importance of oracle design and reference pricing for products that resemble equity exposure in practice.

Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, said SPCX will test whether on-chain perpetual mechanics such as continuous funding rates, permissionless access and 24/7 trading can provide a credible price-discovery venue for a company with no public float and limited disclosed financials. He noted a perpetual without an underlying liquid spot market can reflect narrative and sentiment as much as intrinsic value.

Hyperliquid and its derivatives listings have drawn attention from regulators and incumbent exchanges focused on market surveillance, jurisdictional reach, manipulation risk and sanctions compliance for on-chain derivatives. Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan met with U.S. lawmakers to discuss on-chain derivatives and regulatory approaches. The platform’s policy center has argued that public-ledger transparency can aid surveillance and investigations.

Because SPCX is cash-settled and lacks delivery or redemption tied to underlying shares, its price reflects traders’ positions, funding dynamics and market sentiment rather than ownership in SpaceX.