Crypto platforms offer 24/7 markets on CPI, oil, Fed policy

Crypto exchanges are offering continuous markets that let retail traders place bets on U.S. inflation readings, Federal Reserve policy, oil benchmarks and private-company valuations. The products take the form of binary prediction contracts and perpetual futures and use stablecoins as collateral.

Hyperliquid this week opened a prediction market tied to the May U.S. Consumer Price Index year-over-year reading. The contract will settle against the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on June 10. At launch the market priced about a 43% probability that the print would be below 4.3% and initial volume measured roughly $3,274. Hyperliquid also runs large oil perpetuals that have generated about $1.6 billion in daily trading volume.

Polymarket rolled out a batch of private-company valuation markets covering firms including OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic and Anduril. The platform launched 23 markets in the first batch and will resolve those contracts against Nasdaq Private Market data, which Nasdaq has agreed to make publicly available. Traders have assigned roughly 90% probability that Anthropic reaches a $1 trillion valuation by Dec. 31, 2026, and roughly 76% odds that OpenAI reaches $900 billion by the same date. Polymarket reported nearly $39 billion in U.S. volume so far in 2026.

Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, partnered with crypto exchange OKX to offer never-expiring Brent and WTI contracts where OKX is licensed. The contracts use ICE benchmark prices as reference points and are available to OKX’s global user base, which the company reports at about 120 million users.

Prediction markets convert yes-or-no questions into prices that represent the market’s implied probability for a stated outcome. Perpetual futures provide synthetic exposure without fixed expiries by using periodic funding payments to keep contract prices near their reference benchmarks.

Contract settlement sources vary. Contracts tied to official macro releases such as CPI or Federal Reserve statements settle against fixed public releases. Private-company valuation markets depend on third-party data feeds; Polymarket’s private-company contracts will resolve using Nasdaq Private Market data. Other outcomes, such as geopolitical events or corporate milestones, rely on external sources that can be harder to verify.

Market integrity issues have been raised. Analysts flagged a cluster of 80 bets on Polymarket tied to potential U.S. military action against Iran that produced a 98% win rate, a result described as unlikely to occur by chance. Traders moved more than $500 million in synthetic oil futures on one crypto venue over a single weekend when Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz. In another instance, gold perpetuals on a crypto exchange adjusted about 48 hours before trading resumed on a regulated futures exchange after strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Regulatory and legal responses are unfolding in multiple jurisdictions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued the state of Minnesota after the state enacted a law that criminalizes prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig called the Minnesota measure “the most aggressive state-level incursion into federally regulated markets in the agency’s history” and warned it “would turn lawful crypto operators into felons overnight.” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison described prediction markets as preying on young people and low-income communities.

In Europe, Spain’s Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and another platform and opened formal investigations that cite the absence of gambling licenses, inadequate identity verification and insufficient controls to block minors. Courts in at least six U.S. states are weighing how to classify these products, and regulators in multiple countries are reviewing whether to treat them as federally regulated derivatives or as gambling services subject to local rules.

Developers and exchanges are expanding product offerings while courts and regulators determine which consumer protections and rules apply. The offerings are available around the clock and settle against official or licensed data feeds depending on the contract.