Coinbase prediction markets reach $100M; Q1 spot volume falls

Coinbase reported that its prediction markets reached a $100 million annualized revenue run rate in March, even as the exchange’s core spot trading activity weakened in the first quarter. The company posted a Q1 net loss of $394.1 million and total revenue of $1.4 billion.

Total revenue declined 31% year over year and missed analyst expectations of $1.52 billion. Consumer transaction revenue was $756 million, down 23% from the prior quarter and 40% year over year. Spot trading volume fell 35%.

Earnings per share was a loss of $1.49, compared with analyst estimates for a $0.27 profit. Adjusted EBITDA was $303 million, marking the company’s 13th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA but its lowest level since Q3 2023. Shares slipped about 4% in after-hours trading.

Coinbase launched prediction markets in December 2025 and based the $100 million figure on the first two full months of live trading. CEO Brian Armstrong told analysts, “Prediction markets are scaling fast, reaching $100 million in annualized revenue in March. That’s just two months after launch.”

CFO Alesia Haas described the product as “one of our fastest-growing new products” and noted the result came from less than two months of operation. Coinbase said prediction markets are on track to be the 13th product to exceed $100 million in annualized revenue.

Company executives noted that newer products, including prediction markets and derivatives, have begun to offset some of the decline in spot trading. Derivatives trading volume rose 169% year over year, and Coinbase reported more than fourfold quarter-over-quarter growth in commodities contracts tied to gold, silver and oil.

The company reported an all-time high in crypto trading market share at 8.6% and said it stored about 12% of global crypto assets, the largest share held by any single platform.

A week after launching prediction markets, Coinbase acquired The Clearing Company, a startup in the event-contract space. Management did not outline plans for an in-house prediction market platform during the earnings call.

Coinbase faces enforcement actions and litigation from Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Nevada, and a legal challenge from the New York attorney general. The disputes center on whether certain event contracts, such as those tied to sports outcomes, fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling statutes.