CLARITY Act odds rise to 68% as Senate control looms

The probability that the CLARITY Act will become law has risen to about 68% as the Senate Banking Committee advances the bill toward a markup expected by May 2026. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, show approval odds clustered in the mid-60s.

The CLARITY Act would create a federal framework for digital assets, clarifying whether tokens fall under securities or commodities rules and setting standards for stablecoins. The measure passed the House and is now in the Senate Banking Committee, where negotiators have narrowed disagreements on key points.

Committee chair Tim Scott described the legislation as having reached the “red zone,” a stage in which members complete detailed review and prepare for markup. Lawmakers aim to complete that process by May 2026 if the committee schedule holds.

Negotiators reported compromises on how yields from stablecoin-linked products will be treated and on the split of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Those compromises follow earlier legislative proposals that sought to align agency roles.

Senate control represents a central variable. Analyst Alex Thorn warned the contest for the Senate is very close, and who holds the majority will affect committee chairmanships and the bill’s path. If Democrats gain control, figures such as Sherrod Brown or Elizabeth Warren could lead the Senate Banking panel and pursue different priorities on crypto regulation.

Republican supporters have pushed for a quick markup before any potential power shift. Senator Thom Tillis urged moving the bill to markup once Congress returns from its May recess, and Senator Scott has worked to secure Republican backing before negotiating with Democrats.

Industry groups and lawmakers seeking clarity say a federal law would reduce uncertainty over whether products fall under securities law, commodities oversight, or other regimes. Critics say the bill could either overreach or leave gaps that spark legal challenges. Sponsors maintain they will seek bipartisan votes on the Senate floor after completing committee markup.