Bitcoin Awaits U.S. Job Openings Report Ahead of Fed Week

The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April is due at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Market participants are watching the report as the opening data point in a full week of labor releases that precede the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting.

JOLTS shows the number of job openings, hires, quits and layoffs. In March, openings were 6.87 million, the quits rate was 2.0% and layoffs were 1.87 million. Each component is examined for what it implies about labor-market tightness and inflation pressure.

The JOLTS release leads a sequence of labor reports this week: ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the official nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Economists expect Friday’s payrolls to add roughly 85,000 to 96,000 jobs, down from 115,000 in the prior month.

Markets assign about a 98% probability that the Fed will keep its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the June meeting. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair on May 22. April inflation ran 3.8% year over year. Governor Christopher Waller described talk of rate cuts as “crazy,” and some bond desks are pricing a possible rate hike by year-end. The 10‑year Treasury yield is near 4.6% and the 30‑year yield is above 5%, the latter at its highest level since 2007. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $2 billion in outflows over a recent seven-day stretch, and Bitcoin has struggled to hold the $70,000 level.

Market participants say a JOLTS report in which openings, quits and layoffs all move in the same direction would produce a clearer reaction. A softer-than-expected reading-fewer openings, weaker quits and a rise in layoffs-would likely coincide with lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and increased flows into risk assets. A stronger-than-expected reading-more openings with steady quits and low layoffs-would likely coincide with higher yields, a firmer dollar and reduced demand for non-yielding assets.

At the Fed’s December meeting, a confirmed rate cut did not immediately translate into higher Bitcoin prices, illustrating that policy moves must lead to liquidity changes before asset prices shift. The jobs reports this week are the last major data before the Fed’s pre-meeting blackout. Fed projections and Chair Warsh’s first dot plot and press conference on June 17 will follow the data and provide further guidance on policy expectations.