Bitcoin Tests $76K Support as Fed Futures See 54% Odds

On May 20, CME FedWatch showed roughly a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at the December 2026 meeting. The Fed left its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29.

Bitcoin traded around $77,300 on May 20 and was testing a near-term support zone in the $76,000–$77,000 range. Market data put the crypto market capitalization near $2.57 trillion, 24‑hour trading volume around $70.5 billion and Bitcoin dominance at about 60.3%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $648.6 million on May 18 and $331.1 million on May 19, totaling roughly $980 million across the two trading days. Weekly exits of about $1 billion ended a six‑week streak of inflows for the products.

U.S. Treasury yields were higher on May 19, with the 10‑year at 4.67%, the 20‑year near 5.19% and the 30‑year around 5.18%. The dollar strengthened and recorded its largest weekly gain in more than two months.

Spot ETFs provide a daily measure of institutional flows into and out of Bitcoin. The recent redemptions followed a sustained period of inflows since the launch of U.S. spot products, creating a rapid reversal in the regulated demand channel.

Some market participants identify a break below the $76,000–$77,000 zone as raising the prospect of a slide toward $70,000. Bitcoin has not reclaimed the roughly $82,000 level reached earlier this year.

Key indicators to watch in the coming days include changes in Fed futures pricing for December, moves in the 10‑year Treasury yield and the dollar, and whether spot ETF flows return to net inflows or continue to see redemptions.