Bitcoin rally depends on Fed minutes due Wednesday

The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its June 16–17 meeting, due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, will show whether policymakers discussed labor-market weakness that traders have priced into markets. The content of the minutes will influence market expectations for future interest-rate moves and the recent Bitcoin recovery.

The June jobs report on Thursday showed US employers added 57,000 positions in June, about half of the pace economists expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised April and May payrolls down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% while the labor force shrank by roughly 720,000, pushing the participation rate to 61.5%.

After the jobs data, market pricing shifted. CME FedWatch implied roughly a 76% chance the Fed holds rates at its July 28–29 meeting and about a 40% chance of a rate increase by December. Those probability changes followed the weaker payrolls and the downward revisions to prior months.

Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, about 11% above the roughly $58,000 low reached on July 1. Intraday volatility has been wide: Monday’s intra-session range exceeded $3,400. The price moved higher after the jobs report pushed expectations for tighter policy further out.

Institutional flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added one day of inflows and one day of caution. The funds recorded a $223 million inflow on Thursday, the largest single-day intake since May, ending a 10-day run of withdrawals that had removed $2.73 billion. Net outflows across the ETF complex since early May total about $8.5 billion.

On-chain activity showed large transfers to exchange wallets as the price climbed above $60,000. Roughly 49,000 BTC moved into exchange addresses during the rally, increasing the balance available to sell. Options positioning has dealer risk concentrated near $60,000 and $62,000, price levels that can affect short-term moves depending on market flow.

Technical levels cited by market participants include holding the $62,000 area after the minutes as a sign of continued upside, and clearing Monday’s high near $64,700 as further confirmation. A return toward the July 1 low near $58,000 would indicate the week-long rebound gave back its gains.

At the June meeting, the Fed left the target range for the federal-funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, removed language that had suggested rate cuts could come soon, and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike. The minutes will provide fuller detail of the discussion among officials under Chair Kevin Warsh.

Traders had repriced policy after the jobs report; Wednesday’s minutes will provide the Fed’s internal account of conditions discussed in mid-June and will be used by market participants to update expectations for rates and risk assets.