Bitcoin needs long-term holders to stop $280M/day losses

Glassnode’s on-chain data place Bitcoin in the late stages of a bottoming process and identify long-term holder loss realization as a key stress point. Bitcoin rose from $58,300 to $64,400 in the past week, then pulled back to about $62,700. The price remains below the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600.

Long-term holders are defined by Glassnode as addresses that bought more than 155 days earlier. Losses realized by that group account for about 43% of total realized value on the network and recently peaked near $280 million per day, the largest daily outflow of long-term holder losses since December 2022. Glassnode’s data indicate those loss realizations have been a persistent source of selling pressure.

Institutional flows and trading volumes show limited recovery. Net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs improved from a low near negative $193 million per day in early June to a 30-day average around negative $88.9 million per day, keeping the ETF market in net outflow. Thirty-day ETF trading volume runs about $650 million to $950 million per day, versus an October 2025 peak near $4.4 billion per day. That gap represents roughly $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion per day in additional turnover compared with the peak.

Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. The options open-interest put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, the lowest reading of 2026, while perpetual futures funding rates sit below Glassnode’s 0.01% neutral benchmark. The 25-delta skew remains bid across maturities, indicating higher prices for downside protection relative to calls.

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June meeting on July 8 showing unanimous support for holding the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% and the removal of prior language that suggested a bias toward easing. Participants noted inflation running above the 2% target and cited factors such as tariffs, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and stronger demand related to artificial intelligence as potential drivers of persistent inflation. The minutes outline two scenarios: one where inflation softens enough for policy to hold or ease, and another where persistent inflation would warrant further tightening.

Glassnode presents two market pathways based on these on-chain and macro indicators. In a more constructive path, long-term holder losses would compress toward $100 million–$150 million per day, ETF flows would turn neutral to positive and ETF trading volume would rise above $1 billion per day; under that path Bitcoin would first reclaim the short-term holder breakeven near $72,200 and then test the True Market Mean near $76,600. In a less favorable path, long-term holder losses would remain near or above $250 million per day, ETF flows would stay negative and a firming macro backdrop would keep policy tightening risk present; under that path Bitcoin could remain vulnerable to lower realized-price levels.

Using absolute values, Glassnode combines long-term holder losses near $280 million per day with ETF net outflows averaging about $88.9 million per day to produce a combined stress reading near $369 million per day. Glassnode’s calculations point to a need for meaningful compression in those metrics before on-chain balances and institutional turnover align with higher price levels.