Bitcoin Prices Hormuz Deal Risk as Weekend Liquidity Thins

Bitcoin climbed toward $74,000 late Friday after President Donald Trump announced he would make a ‘final determination’ on an Iran deal that he said would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for unrestricted traffic. Iran responded the agreement was ‘not finalized’ and described parts of Trump’s account as inaccurate. Many U.S. markets were closed or operating reduced hours, leaving round-the-clock venues to process the news.

With CME crude, U.S. equities, ETF desks and many Treasury trading desks closed or on reduced schedules, traders turned to Bitcoin and 24/7 oil perpetual contracts on platforms such as Hyperliquid to trade short-term Hormuz risk before Monday’s reopening of institutional markets.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recorded about 20 million barrels per day moving through Hormuz in 2024, equal to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The International Energy Agency estimated about 25% of global seaborne oil trade transited the route in 2025. Middle East crude exports fell from roughly 18.3 million barrels per day before the crisis to about 8.8 million barrels per day since March. Analysts raised 2026 Brent forecasts to about $90.44 per barrel.

On crypto markets, Bitcoin traded between about $72,490 and $74,213, with technical resistance at $74,200–$75,000. Roughly $6.25 billion in BTC options expired on Deribit on May 29, with $75,000 recorded as the maximum pain level and the largest concentration of put options at that strike; spot BTC settled below $75,000. With options expiry complete and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows offline over the weekend, liquidity conditions tightened.

Data from Farside Investors showed net outflows from the U.S. spot ETF complex of $733.4 million on May 27 and $223.3 million on May 28. BlackRock’s IBIT had a $527.84 million withdrawal on Wednesday, its second-largest daily outflow since launch. The 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $2 billion over the past two weeks.

Research firm Kaiko found that after U.S. spot ETF launches Bitcoin’s weekend share of volume fell to a record-low 16%, down from 28% in 2019, concentrating trading in U.S. market hours. Kaiko also noted that cross-exchange price dispersion, typically under five basis points on weekdays, spiked above 18 basis points in a January 2026 weekend instance when liquidity dried up. Exchanges have recorded large weekend moves before; one Saturday liquidation wave pushed Bitcoin down more than 6%, which market analysts attributed to thin weekend order books.

The International Energy Agency described the resumption of Hormuz shipments as the ‘single most important variable’ for global energy supply and price relief. Over a 48-hour window with thinner liquidity and no U.S. spot ETF flows, Bitcoin traded as market participants priced the disputed Hormuz claim ahead of Monday’s reopening of major oil and equity markets.