Bitcoin halving hits midpoint as ETFs reshape supply

The Bitcoin network is halfway to the next scheduled halving, with roughly 105,000 blocks remaining before block rewards fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The reward cut will occur when block 1,050,000 is mined; current estimates place that event in April 2028, though changes in mining difficulty and hashrate could move the date into March or May.

Bitcoin’s protocol reduces the block reward every 210,000 blocks, a cycle that averages about four years. The mechanism lowers the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. Today miners create roughly 450 BTC per day; after the 2028 halving daily issuance is expected to drop to about 225 BTC.

About 19.7 million of the 21 million Bitcoin supply have been mined. Halvings have a larger effect on the remaining issuance as the total approaches the cap. More than 98% of all Bitcoin is projected to be mined by 2030 based on the current schedule.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds hold in excess of 1.3 million BTC, an amount equivalent to roughly $92 billion at recent prices. These ETFs attract investors such as financial advisors, pension funds and family offices, which generally maintain longer holding periods. ETF holdings provide a consistent source of demand for Bitcoin on the market.

Previous halving dates occurred in November 2012, July 2016, May 2020 and April 2024. Reward levels moved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, then to 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC and the current 3.125 BTC. Historical price moves after past halvings were often largest 12 to 18 months later; past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The upcoming reduction will lower miner revenue per block. Mining operations that wish to remain profitable will rely on more efficient equipment and access to lower-cost power. The network aims for an average block time of 10 minutes, but actual times fluctuate, which affects the projected halving date.

The halving countdown highlights Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule, which is determined by its underlying code rather than by policy decisions. The scheduled reductions in new supply combined with large ETF holdings are factors market participants are monitoring as the network moves into the second half of the four-year cycle.