Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000; $1B Longs at Risk Near $78,000

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday after U.S. inflation came in hotter than expected, touching $78,725 before recovering to about $79,500. The price was roughly 2% lower on the day and about 37% below its October peak above $126,000.

Data from CoinGlass shows a concentrated cluster of leveraged long positions below $78,000 that could trigger roughly $1 billion of forced liquidations if the price breaches that level. CoinGlass also reports that a rebound to about $80,458 would put roughly $640 million of short positions at risk, creating a narrow band where forced closures could accelerate price moves.

CryptoQuant data indicates the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has declined since late April, a gauge used to measure U.S. demand. CryptoQuant analyst JA Maarturn wrote that “US Institutional (large players) [are] selling bitcoin.”

ETF flows turned negative this week, with more than $800 million in outflows and a single-day net withdrawal of $630.38 million on May 13, according to SoSoValue. Glassnode data shows the seven-day moving average of U.S. spot ETF net flows fell to about minus $88 million per day, the deepest outflow level since mid-February.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded more than $400 million in net inflows month-to-date, indicating ongoing but selective investor interest. Trading around the $80,000 level included position trimming by some investors as prices moved back from recent highs.

On the technical side, immediate resistance sits near the 200-day moving average at approximately $82,400, a level Bitcoin reached after a roughly 37% rally from April lows. A clear move above that average would remove that specific technical barrier. If liquidation of leveraged longs occurs below $78,000, data points to the next significant on-chain support band nearer $70,000, close to the on-chain realized price that represents the average cost basis of recent holders.

Exchanges and on-chain metrics such as liquidation maps, premium indexes and ETF flow data were cited as the primary indicators market participants are monitoring as prices approach the identified liquidation thresholds.