Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as Hormuz recovery odds hit 3%

Bitcoin slipped below $63,000, trading near $62,940, after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. The cryptocurrency was down about 1.4% over 24 hours.

Other major tokens moved lower as well. Ethereum, XRP and Solana each fell by less than 2% over the same period. Data from CoinGlass showed $252.9 million of crypto positions were liquidated in the previous day, with leveraged long positions accounting for the bulk of closures. Automatic margin liquidations can accelerate price declines when many positions are forced to close at the same time.

The market reaction followed U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and sharper rhetoric over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane that carries roughly one-fifth of global seaborne crude oil. U.S. Central Command posted that it deployed fighter aircraft, naval vessels and autonomous sea drones to neutralize coastal radar and missile capabilities and that it was positioned to keep commercial navigation open. Iranian officials rejected that account. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared the “era of one-sided deals is over” and said passage would operate under strict Iranian administrative rules.

Energy markets responded: Brent crude rose as much as 4% toward $80 a barrel. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year yield reaching its strongest level since February 2025. Futures traders priced roughly 39 basis points of additional Federal Reserve tightening by year-end, and gold fell on a firmer dollar and higher yields. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed some officials considered scenarios in which Middle East tensions and other factors could keep inflation elevated; the committee left the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%.

Higher yields affect assets that do not pay interest. Rising real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and support demand for the dollar and government debt.

A prediction market contract tied to IMF PortWatch vessel calls showed traders placing about a 3% probability that traffic would meet the contract’s recovery threshold by July 31. The contract resolves “Yes” if a seven-day moving average reaches at least 60 vessel calls on any date through that deadline. The contract had recorded more than $16 million in volume.

Equity markets in Asia posted large losses. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 9.2%, erasing roughly $377 billion in market value and triggering a trading halt. The semiconductor sector was hit hard: SK Hynix declined about 15%, its largest single-day drop on record, and traded more than 35% below its June peak. Samsung Electronics lost nearly 11%. Overall, about $950 billion of market capitalization was wiped from Asian exchanges in the session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.7%, Shanghai’s benchmark slipped 2.3%, Taiwan’s markets dropped 3.1% and India’s Nifty dipped 0.3%.

Market participants point to leverage, dollar liquidity and expectations for U.S. interest rates as drivers of Bitcoin’s short-term moves. Losses in leveraged positions and a broader retreat in risk assets contributed to the recent decline.