Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as Fed dots overshadow oil relief

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on June 18, trading as low as $62,263 and as high as $64,731 during the session. The coin closed near $63,030 on June 18 and traded nearer $62,450 on June 19.

President Donald Trump signed and sent to Congress a US-Iran Islamabad memorandum of understanding on June 18 that commits Iran to ensuring safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and calls for the United States to end its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 30 days. Hours after the memorandum was filed, three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying about 6 million barrels of crude broadcast positions while transiting the Strait for the first time in weeks.

Brent crude settled near $79.85 on June 18, its lowest close since before the conflict began on Feb. 28, and U.S. crude (WTI) settled around $76.60. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, and resumed shipping removed a short-term geopolitical premium from oil prices.

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on June 18. The FOMC’s updated dot plot showed nine of 18 officials now expect at least one rate increase this year, up from none in March, and six of those nine expect more than a single 25-basis-point rise. The Fed’s median year-end personal consumption expenditures inflation forecast increased to 3.6% from 2.7% in March. The policy statement included a pledge to deliver price stability.

After the Fed release, the U.S. dollar index rose to about 100.80, a one-year high, and fed funds futures indicated roughly a 68% chance of a rate hike by September. Bitcoin’s decline on June 18 coincided with the stronger dollar and the repricing of rate expectations.

Shipping and insurance officials cautioned that normal conditions in the Strait may take time to return. Lloyd’s Market Association warned that mine-clearance operations are incomplete and described the 60-day memorandum as a conditional, temporary window for safer passage. Some insurers and ship operators indicated they would remain cautious until security and insurance conditions show sustained improvement.

Market participants are monitoring upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary and fed funds futures to assess whether lower oil prices and resumed shipping affect the Fed’s outlook on inflation and rates.