Bitcoin ETF Outflows Leave BTC Vulnerable to Bond Trade

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $648.6 million on May 18 and $290.4 million on May 15, leaving a 10-day net outflow of about $1.6 billion, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin traded near $77,000 during the period.

Bank of America’s May Global Fund Manager Survey showed professional investors cut bond allocations to a net 44% underweight in May, the deepest short position since June 2022 and down from a 33% underweight in April. The survey reported global equity exposure rose to a net 50% overweight from 13% in April while cash holdings fell to 3.9% from 4.3%.

The survey asked managers about risks. Forty percent identified a second wave of inflation as the largest tail risk, and 18% cited a disorderly rise in bond yields.

Treasury yields rose while managers shifted positions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.6653% on May 19, the 30-year touched 5.14%, and the 10-year real yield climbed to about 2.13% during the stretch.

Real yields measure returns after inflation. Higher real yields increase the return available from bonds relative to assets that do not pay income, such as Bitcoin.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs had been viewed as a potential steady source of institutional demand. The May 15 and May 18 outflows left the ETFs’ 10-day window at negative $1.6 billion, according to Farside Investors. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index was -0.524 for the week ending May 8, indicating financial conditions remained looser than the historical average.

Market strategists outline two scenarios tied to future Treasury yield moves. In a lower-yield scenario, if the 10-year falls toward 4.20%–4.40% and the 30-year slips below 5%, strategists project spot ETF inflows could resume and identify an $80,000–$82,000 resistance zone. Citi’s 12-month base-case forecast is $112,000, with a bull case near $165,000.

In a higher-yield scenario, strategists point to a technical level near 4.73% on the 10-year. If 10-year yields and 10-year real yields rise above recent highs and the 30-year extends past 5.14%, forecasts include accelerated ETF outflows and pressure on leveraged long positions. Some models project a downside near $58,000 under severe deleveraging.

Longer-term reports cited macro and market-structure risks. The IMF’s April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report listed geopolitical conflict, inflation and sovereign rollover risk. The OECD’s 2026 Global Debt Report noted a larger share of government debt is held by price-sensitive investors as central banks step back and highlighted hedge funds’ role as marginal buyers in some markets. The Bank of Canada described higher long-term yields as a term-premium issue.

Market participants continue to monitor ETF flows, fund manager positioning and Treasury yields when assessing near-term price dynamics for Bitcoin.