Bitcoin clings to $78K as Treasury yields pressure markets

Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $77,711 on May 15 and later traded near $78,225 after opening the day above $81,000. The move left the $77,700–$78,000 support band under pressure as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.599% and the 30-year climbed to about 5.131%.

Rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin. April consumer price index figures showed headline inflation at 3.8% year over year, up from 3.3% in March, while core CPI held at 2.8% and the energy index was up 17.9% over the prior 12 months. One-year-ahead inflation expectations measured in May were 4.5%. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will assess inflation outcomes before easing policy.

Oil prices were higher on May 15, with West Texas Intermediate near $105.42 and Brent near $109.26. Market models project Brent closer to $111 by quarter-end, and some banks have raised longer-term Brent forecasts if supply deals are delayed.

ETF flows showed an institutional bid earlier in May, with Bitcoin investment products recording $706.1 million of inflows for the week ending May 11. Daily spot ETF data then showed outflows of $630.4 million on May 13, inflows of $131.3 million on May 14 and outflows of $290.4 million on May 15.

On the technical map, a daily close back above $78,000 would keep the correction contained. A decisive daily close below $77,700 would open a path to $76,500 as the next target, and $75,000 would be the subsequent round-number test for dip buyers. A sustained move below $75,000 would bring the $73,000–$74,000 range into focus.

Upside checkpoints include $80,000 on a daily close, which would break the lower-low pattern from the previous sessions, and $82,000, near the 200-day exponential moving average, which would be a further technical reset.

Market data show Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with Nasdaq futures above 0.7, and the asset’s exposure to equity drawdowns can rise when Nasdaq falls sharply. Market participants say three macro inputs could support a near-term recovery: the 10-year yield retreating below about 4.50%, oil prices easing from current levels above $105 per barrel, and spot ETF flows turning positive. If those conditions occur, Bitcoin could reclaim $80,000 and test $82,000 on a daily close. If yields hold near multi-month highs and ETF outflows persist, a close below $77,700 would likely target the sequence of $76,500 then $75,000.