Bitcoin needs 92% rally to offset July 2025 $120K buyers

Bitcoin traded around $64,073 as of press time. A buyer who purchased at about $120,000 in July 2025 faces a 47.98% loss and would need a 92.2% price rise to reach breakeven before fees.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode places the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600. Recovering to those levels would require gains of roughly 12.7% and 19.6% from current prices.

Those cost-basis checkpoints represent aggregate breakeven levels for recent and active holders. If Bitcoin reaches those prices, some investors who have been underwater could choose to sell as their losses shrink, creating potential supply the market would need to absorb.

Glassnode’s July updates report weak spot participation and limited on-chain activity and keep a residual downside risk near the $53,000 Realized Price.

A rise to $100,000 would require about a 56.1% gain from current levels. Restoring the July 2025 entry price of $123,165 would demand roughly a 92.2% advance; the later all-time high of $126,198 would require an even larger recovery.

Market metrics show Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with circulating supply around 20.06 million, a market cap near $1.29 trillion and 24-hour trading volume around $28.9 billion.

Traders and analysts monitor the short-term and True Market Mean cost bases and the Realized Price to gauge where aggregated breakeven points lie and how much selling could surface as prices rise.