Bitcoin Hits $73K After US-Iran Ceasefire; Rally May Be Fragile

Bitcoin climbed to $73,085 after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday night. The cryptocurrency was up more than 3% in the past 24 hours as markets reacted to the temporary de-escalation.

David Duong, Coinbase Global Head of Investment Research, warned the rally may be fragile and not a full market reset, describing the truce as “a relief valve, not a full reset.” He noted core disputes between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved and that shipping firms continue to seek security assurances.

The ceasefire triggered a broad risk-on move and pushed Brent crude back toward the low $90s after recent highs. Industry tracking showed one oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

Economic data on Friday added complexity for policy and markets. Headline consumer price index rose to 3.3% year over year in March from 2.4% in February, driven by a 21.2% monthly jump in gasoline, the largest single-month increase in the series since 1967. Energy prices were up 10.9% overall. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year, both softer than expected.

Labor-market figures showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March versus a 65,000 consensus. Labor force participation was 61.9% and wage growth cooled to 3.5% year over year. Duong noted prior payrolls have been revised down repeatedly, presenting a trade-off for the Federal Reserve between headline growth and underlying softness.

Duong identified $84 per barrel as a key oil level: sustained trading below that threshold would signal easing inflation pressure, while Brent holding above $100 would point to markets pricing a longer conflict and renewed stress on risk assets, including bitcoin. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said the Strait of Hormuz “is not open.”

U.S. officials said they are willing to negotiate if Iran engages in good faith, and peace talks were scheduled to begin Friday. Market participants said they will watch the talks, oil prices and inflation data for signs of how currencies, equities and cryptocurrencies may move next.