Bitcoin $60,000 support tied to dollar or 10-year yield

Glassnode’s latest on-chain report shows Bitcoin retested the $60,000 area after a roughly 7.5% weekly decline that left the price near $61,700. The report finds more than 95% of short-term holders are underwater and describes valuation and leverage metrics that have moved into deeply discounted territory.

On-chain measures cited in the report include an AVIV ratio of 0.80 with an AVIV z-score around -1.06, placing active investors’ average cost above the current spot price. Short-term holder MVRV sits near 0.83, implying recent buyers are about 17% to 19% below their purchase price on average. Only about 3.3% of short-term holders are currently in profit, compared with a four-year mean near 55%. The STH-SOPR z-score is about -1.86, close to the -2 level the report associates with severe capitulation.

Price action cleared a concentration of leveraged long positions between roughly $64,000 and $70,000 as the market moved lower. That liquidations profile was cleaner than in the prior week, according to the report.

Spot-demand signals weakened during the decline. The Coinbase Premium remained negative, indicating U.S. spot buyers did not absorb the sell pressure at scale. Corporate treasury purchases that supported Bitcoin in April and May, at times above $500 million a day, slowed sharply after early June. Options markets priced elevated risk: one-week at-the-money implied volatility briefly exceeded 60% before settling near 50%, one-month implied volatility rose from about 34% to 45%, and six-month implied volatility moved from roughly 40% to 44%. Put buying accounted for about one-third of options premium over the past week, and the one-month 25-delta skew widened from near 11% to about 24%.

Macro factors identified in the report frame the level of support around $60,000. The dollar index was near 100.01, up about 2.1% over 30 days, while the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.53% and the 2-year near 4.14%, yielding a modestly positive 10-year–2-year spread. Glassnode defines a recovery threshold as either the dollar index falling below 99 or the 10-year yield compressing toward roughly 4.2%.

The report notes near-term data and central bank events that could influence those macro variables. The May CPI print released on June 10 provided an initial read on inflation momentum, and the Federal Open Market Committee met on June 16-17 with its Summary of Economic Projections. The next CPI release covering June data is scheduled for July 14.

The report lays out two potential paths: if the dollar weakens below 99 or the 10-year yield falls toward 4.2%, spot demand, treasury buying and options skew could move back toward prior levels; if the dollar and yields hold near current levels, the report notes more recent buyers may continue to experience losses and the $60,000 area could continue to absorb selling.