Bitcoin Faces 60-Day Test After Iran-US Memorandum

Bitcoin rallied after Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding that begins a 60-day window for negotiations on nuclear limits and the sequencing of sanctions relief. Brent crude fell about 5% to $78.96 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $76.05, both near three-month lows as the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz eased.

Iran’s foreign minister announced that formal negotiations with U.S. representatives will begin the same day the memorandum was signed. Negotiators have two months to reach a final settlement on uranium enrichment limits, verification arrangements and a schedule for lifting sanctions. The memorandum also permits Iran to start selling oil and fuel under newly issued waivers and establishes a planning phase for a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund that would activate only after a final deal is signed.

Market moves followed the memorandum itself rather than a completed agreement. Traders priced in a lower geopolitical risk premium tied to the potential reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of renewed Iranian exports, prompting the drop in crude and a relief bid in risk assets including Bitcoin.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of global oil and petroleum product consumption and more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade in 2024 and early 2025. A credible decline in the odds of disruption there reduces a source of market tail risk. The newly issued waivers create the possibility of near-term shipments that, if executed, would add supply to global markets.

Key issues remain unresolved: the exact limits on enrichment, the timing and scope of sanctions relief, and the design of inspections and verification. U.S. intelligence and senior officials have expressed skepticism that Tehran will accept the concessions a full settlement would require. Markets treated the memorandum as an initial de-escalation rather than a final settlement.

A poll of economists found nearly 70% expect the Federal Reserve to hold its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the rest of 2026, with none of those surveyed anticipating a cut at the June 16–17 meeting. Economists noted that a one-day crude price decline of about 5% changes the inflation outlook only marginally; a sustained multi-month drop in energy prices would be more likely to influence central bank policy.

Analysts and market participants say the next 60 days will determine whether the memorandum leads to a durable reduction in oil-related risk or whether uncertainty resurfaces. Negotiators’ progress on enrichment levels, sanctions waivers, Hormuz shipping volumes, export data, inspection terms and any congressional response in Washington will be monitored for their potential to move crude prices and, by extension, risk assets such as Bitcoin.