BetMGM Q1 rev $696M misses estimates; EBITDA $25M users -9%

BetMGM reported first-quarter net operating revenue of $696 million, a 6% year-over-year increase and 14% below analyst consensus of $810 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $25 million, an 11% increase from a year earlier but 68% below the $78 million forecast. Average monthly active users declined 9% to 597,000. The joint venture attributed the shortfall to customer-friendly sports outcomes in marquee events and weaker consumer demand. The venture does not report consolidated net income; any net income figures will appear in parent filings by MGM Resorts and Entain.

Management lowered full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.9 billion–$3.1 billion from $3.1 billion–$3.2 billion while keeping adjusted EBITDA guidance at $300 million–$350 million and indicating results will likely be toward the lower end of that range. BetMGM said its iGaming business grew 9% year over year, compared with roughly 4% growth in sports betting. For the first time the joint venture paid a $3 million parent fee to MGM Resorts and Entain for licensing and services.

The 9% drop in average monthly active users prompted questions on whether the decline reflects a deliberate shift under BetMGM’s refined player management strategy to remove low-value, promotion-heavy players or loss of market share to competitors. Analysts pointed to a 23% increase in handle per active user as evidence that remaining customers are generating higher average handle. Market participants will watch Q2 sports hold percentages to see if they return toward historical averages of about 9%–10%.

Lower adjusted EBITDA will reduce excess cash available for distributions to the parents. BetMGM returned $270 million to MGM Resorts and Entain in 2025; the company estimated that excess cash tied to Q1 results could fall to roughly $50 million–$65 million for the year, while noting an improvement in sports hold could enable buybacks later in 2026. Entain shares fell sharply after the update before recovering modestly. Brokerages adjusted outlooks, with at least one cutting its price target on MGM Resorts and others flagging regional weather and marketing spend as headwinds.

Adam Greenblatt, BetMGM’s chief executive, said the company remains on track for $500 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2027 and cited growth in proprietary iGaming content, expansion in multi-product states, omnichannel opportunities in Nevada and focus on premium mass sports players. BetMGM also signed an exclusive U.S. deal with Games Global to debut the Gold Blitz franchise to support its iGaming lineup.

Regulatory risk was highlighted with the introduction of the Save Ohio Sports Act, proposed legislation that would ban online sports betting in Ohio if passed. BetMGM’s U.S. market share is roughly 21%. Analysts will monitor Q2 results for signs that sports hold normalizes and that revenue per user trends support the company’s player-management approach.