Barclays Says Coinbase Retail Traders Shift to Kalshi, Polymarket

In a note dated April 8, Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish downgraded Coinbase Global to Underweight and lowered his price target to $140 from $148. He pointed to a decline in retail trading and growth in prediction markets as core reasons for the call.

Barclays estimates Coinbase’s Q1 spot volume at about $189 billion, a roughly 30% drop from the prior quarter. The firm models transaction revenue of $678 million for the period, below the Street estimate of $876 million. Budish wrote that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since the end of 2023.” He flagged March as Coinbase’s weakest volume month since September 2024 and noted early April showed no signs of a rebound.

Barclays highlighted activity in prediction markets. Nominal trading volume in March 2026 reached $25.7 billion, with Kalshi at $13.1 billion and Polymarket at $10.6 billion. Those two platforms produced roughly 16% of Coinbase’s entire Q1 spot volume in a single month. Coinbase offers prediction markets powered by Kalshi and has acquired a prediction-market startup led by a former Polymarket and Kalshi executive.

Budish questioned Coinbase’s strategy to expand into equities and other products, calling equities trading a low-margin business where he sees no clear competitive edge for the company. He also noted newer entrants are taking market share in prediction markets.

Regulatory uncertainty surrounds the prediction-market sector. The federal government recently moved to block Arizona from criminally prosecuting Kalshi in a case that could determine whether prediction markets are governed by a single national framework or by state laws.

Barclays is the most bearish on Coinbase among covering analysts: 19 rate the stock Buy, 10 Hold and four Sell. Market data show Bitcoin down about 18% year-to-date, trading near $72,000, compared with an October 2025 peak near $126,000. Coinbase shares are down roughly 30% year-to-date. The company missed consensus estimates by 37% in its last quarterly report and is scheduled to report Q1 earnings on May 7.