Arthur Hayes: 99% of Altcoins Could Fall to Zero

At Consensus Miami 2026, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes warned that roughly 99% of altcoins could collapse to zero, labeling many of those tokens “shitcoins” and framing the losses as part of a market cycle rather than the end of crypto.

Hayes cited long-term churn in U.S. markets to illustrate his point, offering a statistic about the S&P 500: “If you look over time, I think since 1929, something like 98% of all companies in the S&P 500 have gone to zero.” He used that history to argue high failure rates are common in large capital markets.

He argued crypto collapses can occur faster than equity wipeouts because tokens trade around the clock, face fewer trading gates and operate with less regulatory oversight. That continuous trading, he said, can produce quicker and more violent price moves than those typically seen in stock markets.

Hayes urged listeners to view many tokens as software projects. “I always say that instead of saying token or coin, just replace that with software,” he told the crowd, adding that some projects gain users while most do not. He described the token model as a way to raise funds and test ideas, accepting that many ventures will fail the survival test.

On regulation and bitcoin, Hayes linked price to fiat supply and liquidity rather than political approval. “If you want to talk about the price of Bitcoin… all that matters is how many units of fiat are there today,” he said, and added, “The more money that is printed in the U.S. and around the world, the more value that bitcoin will have in fiat currencies.” He noted bitcoin was trading around $82,000 and stressed its utility for moving value outside traditional banking rails.

Hayes criticized efforts to fold crypto into traditional finance, calling the mix of TradFi, regulators and crypto a “bastard child.” He said centralized crypto firms will seek regulation to protect business models and lobby politicians, but argued lobbying does not determine whether the technology is effective.

He tied his remarks to a broader theme of capital formation and experimentation: token issuance allows many projects to launch; most will fail, and a small number will find lasting use and market traction.