60-Day U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Caps Bitcoin Amid Hormuz Strikes

The 60-day extension of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire has kept Bitcoin trading near the mid-$70,000s as markets weigh the truce against fresh U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted missile launch sites and boats placing mines in southern Iran.

U.S. Central Command described the strikes as “defensive” and reported forces were “using restraint” while the ceasefire remains active. An Iranian government spokesperson called a comprehensive deal “not imminent.” Officials indicated the strait could reopen roughly 30 days after a final agreement.

Brent crude recovered after an earlier drop, equities traded unevenly, and Bitcoin hovered between about $76,000 and $77,500 as traders balanced diplomatic progress with ongoing military incidents. Market participants noted that a sustained relief in risk assets depends on confirmed improvements in physical oil flows and a reduction in headline risk.

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain central to market calculations. U.S. data showed roughly 20.9 million barrels per day moved through the strait in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum consumption and roughly one-quarter of seaborne oil trade. Normal pre-conflict shipping averaged 125 to 140 daily passages; recent traffic had been far below that level, with only several tankers crossing before the ceasefire extension.

Restoring routine tanker traffic and clearing mines could take months. Federal Reserve officials have expressed concern that elevated energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer. Major banks have pushed back forecasts for rate cuts; some now expect the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 and to delay the first cut until late 2026 or early 2027. Traders priced about a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December 2026.

Bitcoin’s price moved with headline developments. The token climbed toward $82,000 when West Texas Intermediate fell about 6% on early peace hopes and later fell to about $76,500 after former President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking,” which pushed Brent briefly above $112 and reduced risk appetite.

Investors are monitoring whether mine-clearing begins, whether tanker traffic through Hormuz returns to pre-conflict levels, and whether U.S. policymakers see persistent disinflation. Until those conditions are met, markets remain sensitive to disruptions in energy supply and to shifts in monetary policy expectations.